Market Note
AI draft
PLV FOB Australia vs DCE M1
Premium low-vol hard coking coal vs Dalian coking coal front month — monthly USD/t
HCC vs PCI
Hard coking vs pulverised coal injection — 5Y
PLV CFR Differentials
China vs India delivered price — 5Y
PLV FOB Australia
Premium low-vol hard coking coal — monthly avg USD/t
HCC vs PCI
Hard coking vs pulverised coal injection
PLV CFR Differentials
China vs India delivered price premium
All Benchmarks
Monthly averages USD/t — toggle series above
Relativities show each benchmark as a % of PLV FOB Australia — the global met coal benchmark. Values above 100% mean that benchmark trades at a premium to PLV. Monthly averages.
US Metallurgical Coal Relativities
% of PLV FOB Australia — monthly avg
Global Met Coal Relativities
% of PLV FOB Australia — monthly avg
Spreads show the USD/t premium of one benchmark over another. Negative values indicate discount.
PLV vs HCC Spread
Monthly avg premium of PLV over HCC (USD/t)
CFR India Premium over CFR China
USD/t — India delivery premium (monthly avg)
Annual Average Prices
Calendar year averages — PLV, HCC, PCI USD/t
US East Coast — Annual Avg
USEC LV & USEC HVA
Current Forward Curve
Contango
PLV USD/t — M1 through M24 · as of 9 Sep 2026
Curve Evolution — Key Dates
Forward curve shape at selected historical snapshots
M1 = front-month (nearest-expiry) contract — the most actively traded. Chart shows monthly sampled settlement prices since Aug 2014.
M1 Front-Month History
PLV FOB Australia SGX settlement USD/t
Calendar Spreads — Current Curve
Month-on-month price difference (M[n] minus M[n-1]) in USD/t
Spread History
Single spread through time. M1−M2 = prompt roll (spot vs forward); M2−Mn = curve structure. Green = positive, red = negative.
Curve shape, anchored on M2 (the live front month — M1 is averaging-pinned through its delivery month). Blue = contango (deferred above prompt), amber = backwardation (prompt scarcity). Structure shown to M12; long-run revisions handled separately below.
Curve Shape Over Time
M3 · M6 · M9 · M12 minus M2 — colour = structure, not price level. Signed-square-root scale.
backwardationcontango
±$55+ saturates
Curve Slope Over Time
M12 minus M2 — positive = contango, negative = backwardation
Long-End Repricing
Change in M24 over the selected window — is the market revising its long-run anchor. Bars: the back end reprices in steps. Green = revised up, red = down.
Import-Parity Arb — onshore vs seaborne, quality-matched
Two floor/ceiling reads, both landed at the coastal mills where domestic and seaborne actually compete (inland mills don't take seaborne). Tier-2 HCC: DCE dominant normalized to seaborne HCC 64 grade (strip 13% VAT, S/VM/ash penalties — CSR≈62 matches, +$20 to coast) vs HCC 64 CFR China. PLV: China domestic premium, derived as Argus Mid Vol × the Liulin #4 / mid-vol ratio, ex-VAT, +$20 to coast — vs PLV CFR China. Spread = onshore − seaborne.
Arb Over Time — onshore vs seaborne spread
The two spreads by session (US$/t, onshore − seaborne). Zero = parity at the coastal mills. Above zero, onshore is dearer than seaborne (seaborne competitive / imports pull in); below zero, onshore undercuts seaborne. DCE vs Tier-2 HCC tends to hug parity; domestic premium vs PLV is the wider floor/ceiling band.
Current Forward Curve
Contango
Dalian coking coal (J) — M1 through M12, USD/t · as of 9 Sep 2026 · RMB in tooltips
Open Interest by Contract
DCE-reported OI, latest session — where the liquidity actually sits. The gold bar is the dominant seat that carries the curve; the near-zero front is an expiring stub. The step to the next Jan/May/Sep cluster is the roll, not term structure.
Curve Evolution — Recent Sessions
Forward curve shape over the last ten settlement days
M1 = front-month Dalian coking coal contract, converted to USD at the same-day CNY fix. Chart shows monthly sampled settlements since Mar 2013 — the onshore read on the seaborne market.
M1 Front-Month History
DCE coking coal settlement USD/t · M1 / M6 / M12 · RMB in M1 tooltip
Calendar Spreads — Current Curve
Month-on-month price difference (M[n] minus M[n-1]) in USD/t. Note the M6–M7 step — the liquid Jan/May/Sep contracts carry the curve.
Spread History
Single spread through time, daily over the last 150 sessions. M1−M2 = prompt roll; M2−Mn = curve structure. Green = positive, red = negative.
Curve shape anchored on M2, daily over the last 150 sessions. Blue = contango (deferred above prompt), amber = backwardation (prompt scarcity). Same colour scale as the SGX tab (±$55 saturates) so the two markets read side by side.
Curve Shape Over Time
M3 · M6 · M9 · M12 minus M2 — colour = structure, not price level. Signed-square-root scale.
backwardationcontango
±$55+ saturates
Curve Slope Over Time
M12 minus M2, USD/t — positive = contango, negative = backwardation
Long-End Repricing
Change in M12 over the selected trading-day window — is Dalian revising its long-run anchor. Green = revised up, red = down.
Met Coal Trend Monitor
Which way PLV is trending, how hard, and whether the move is supported · M2 SGX · steel margins · India port stocks
Updated —
——
Cycle (5Y): —
Trend (1Y): —
Tactical (3M): —
The trend
PLV M2 — forward prompt price
SGX settlement, USD/t · monthly. M2 not M1 — the front is averaging-pinned through delivery.
Multi-duration momentum
Net return at each horizon vs its own normal (z-score) · 5Y cycle → 1M tactical · faded/hatched = mean-reverting (Hurst < .5).
Is the move supported?
Price set by
China
Shared
India
Demand — can they afford it
—
Demand — do they need it
—
Structural handoff
—
Coal ↔ margin coupling (12m)
Whose margins the forward moves with. India has led ~2yr; a China supply shock flips it short-term.
Physical inventory — stock posture
Port stocks vs seasonal range · pulled read; full seasonal charts in the Inventory section.
Supply override · the one judged input — and what flips the driver short-term
Cycle History — multi-duration momentum through time
PLV M2 · point-in-time (no lookahead) · scrub, play, or jump to a turn
—
speed
jump:
Price context — PLV M2, line colored by point-in-time regime (right of marker unknown at the as-of date)
Upcycle
Rolling over
Downcycle
Turning up
Mixed / flat
—
Diverging bars — z vs each horizon's own normal · faded/hatched = mean-reverting
Term structure — z by horizon (cross below 0 = that scale rolling over)
Heat ladder — cycle (top) → tactical (bottom)
Cycle dial — outer 5Y → inner 1M · green out / red in = rolling over
Loading inventory read…
National totals
China total coking-coal stock (monthly) vs India port cover in days of burn — the two countries at matched coverage.
China — by supply-chain stage
Producer (mine) \u2192 coke plant \u2192 steel mill, plus seaborne ports. Record-low producer stock is the Shanxi shock at the source; mills mid-range = comfortable downstream.
India \u2014 by port (9 core)
Each port vs its own prior-year range. The aggregate days-of-burn read is broad but Dhamra is drawing while others build.
China steel & coking-coal fundamentals \u2014 the flows behind the price. The import panel is the one to read carefully: growth is overland, not seaborne.
Coking-coal imports by source \u00b7 monthly \u00b7 Mt
Mongolia + Russia (overland) vs Australia + Canada + US (seaborne). Seaborne is the thin top band \u2014 China meets incremental demand overland.
Shanxi HCC production \u00b7 monthly \u00b7 kt
Sum of Shanxi prefectures (Changzhi, Datong, Jincheng\u2026). The supply source at the centre of the shock.
Steel exports vs pig-iron production \u00b7 monthly
Export outlet (kt, left axis) vs domestic hot-metal / coking-coal demand (Mt, right axis) \u2014 hover for the month's values.
Steel inventories \u00b7 weekly \u00b7 kt
Total tracked finished-steel stock (rebar + HRC + plate + wire rod + CRC).
Forward months (2nd, 3M, 6M, 12M) derived from the SGX futures curve using the Seawolf differential methodology. Month and Year columns on forward rows show the forward premium vs today's spot.